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Bookmarks tagged election
"The chance that each candidate will win the general election IF he or she wins the party nomination. Calculated by dividing each candidate's general election odds by nomination odds. Averages all markets: Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, and Polymarket.
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CAVEAT: While these numbers generally show how "electable" a candidate is, an exception is when a party's nomination pick depends on how strong its position is that year. Perhaps a party is more likely to pick Candidate A in a year when the party is popular. In that case, the odds on this page would suggest not that Candidate A is electable, but rather that he or she will be picked in an "electable" year. "
Sourced from: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-markets-suggest-replacing
...
CAVEAT: While these numbers generally show how "electable" a candidate is, an exception is when a party's nomination pick depends on how strong its position is that year. Perhaps a party is more likely to pick Candidate A in a year when the party is popular. In that case, the odds on this page would suggest not that Candidate A is electable, but rather that he or she will be picked in an "electable" year. "
Sourced from: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-markets-suggest-replacing
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